Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
