Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
